Divining the future

2010: the start of a new decade for sure. But a new era for social housing? As the gloom of recession casts its shadow over a new year and a fast approaching general election offers the potential of a massive shake-up, exactly how the sector will fare is anyone’s guess.

Which is why we’re not relying on just anyone’s guess. Here Inside Housing presents predictions for the year ahead from some of social housing’s most opinionated figures. And that’s not all. We also provide some cosmic guidance via Britain’s most famous astrologer Russell Grant - discovering along the way that the rest of our pundits are, interestingly, mostly well-balanced Librans, jovial Sagittarians or trustworthy Taureans. Coincidence? You decide.

Richard Blakeway is housing advisor to London mayor, Boris Johnson, and a diplomatic Libran

‘Following a fairly unprecedented spending surge, 2010 will allow for a wider consideration of housing in terms other than bricks and mortar.

There will be greater focus on intelligent investment. With public finances tightening, how do we get better value by targeting funding at the areas that need it most and delivering the sort of housing that is needed most - and how can the public sector unlock private investment?

‘I predict there will be a greater focus on generating mobility within the existing stock, both geographically and between tenures for those tenants who would benefit from moving, including a more creative set of incentives and a broader rethink of the purpose of the intermediate sector.

‘There will also be a greater focus on localising delivery, including the recognition that local authorities should be given the opportunity to play a much bigger role in housing delivery to help unlock their potential assets and borrowing - and making the case that housing is as important as health and education for public funding.’

An outgoing and charming Sagittarian, Piers Williamson is chief executive of The Housing Finance Corporation

‘I predict that 2010 will be a year when more housing associations utilise capital market funding for the first time. It will be the first year when bond issuance outstrips bank financing since 1992.

‘UK banks will find the cost of long-term financing increases, but they will still find ways of making an exception for housing associations. I also predict that more building societies will be forced to merge. Renting will be acknowledged by mortgage pundits as an economically sensible choice.

‘The implications of the next comprehensive spending review will become clear during 2010, and we will discover whether our housing minister carries any clout with the Treasury.

‘The housing sector will start to develop serious alternatives to the historic cross-subsidy model.’

Leading astrologer Russell Grant looks to the skies to provide social housing with its horoscope for 2010

‘With Saturn, planet of fairness and justice now in Libra - a sign of balance - a lot of effort in 2010 will be made to right past wrongs, but will it be enough?

‘The transforming planet Pluto now in Capricorn supports this need to curb wastefulness, excessive spending and uninhibited consumption. The current political structure will be transformed but none of this will happen quickly. Saturn retrograde in Libra suggests more delays, frustrations, arguments and disappointments.

‘Saturn slowly travels through each zodiac sign like a cosmic building inspector. As 2010 begins, Saturn linking with Pluto and Pluto to Uranus is suggestion of some radical changes to come. This will include further enquiries and investigations into groups, political parties and powerful individuals who have abused their positions and twisted regulations to suit their own purpose.

‘In 2010 there is unlikely to be an end to the economic crisis. The current government’s tactics of spending and borrowing its way out of recession will bring further negative impact to bear on the nation no matter who wins the general election.

‘The economy will slump again before showing signs of improvement and expect there only to be flickers of hope throughout this difficult year ahead. House buyers will continue to look for energy efficiencies especially if these can be proven to lower their utility bills. House prices will remain more or less the same as the previous year. The rental market will continue to rise as first time buyers find it even harder to find the deposit necessary for a mortgage.

‘Stalled building projects across the country will be temporarily revived with new developments for affordable housing set underway. Even so, rents are more likely to go up than down. And for as long as the current economic climate exists, banks will continue to curb lending. In addition, with credit availability low and proposed funds from the government only trickling down to small companies, many will go out of business.

‘Affordable housing and reducing social housing waiting lists will be a high priority in the election campaigns with the intention of more funding to be targeted to this area.

‘Will Labour retain power? It is more likely to be a very narrow Conservative majority or a hung parliament. No matter which government is in power, the recommendations of the Tenant Services Authority will be taken seriously.

‘By June Saturn will be in a stronger position in the skies. The solar eclipse in July along with significant planetary patterns involving Saturn, Uranus and Pluto pushing people to demand action to protect their homes and families. Expect organised campaigns and protests during the summer and by the autumn a short-term truce established.

‘As Saturn continues its two-and-a-half year transit through Libra and Pluto gets further into Capricorn, delays of the past and all that impedes progress will start to lift.

‘Individuals, families and nations will join forces to repair the damage resulting from the economic crisis and what was acceptable in the past will no longer be tolerable as a new and less materialistic way of life will replace the old.’

Neil Garrett is a tenant board member for Citywest Homes, Westminster Council’s arm’s-length management organisation, and a Taurean.

‘Social housing will suffer next year, and I don’t think the results of the election will make a difference to this.

‘At Citywest Homes we had an ambitious programme for the next three years, we were really going places with an ambitious £130 million development programme to build 500 new homes, but I can see dramatic cutbacks in funding affecting its progress.

‘Residents’ voices will not make an impact if funding isn’t available and there is nothing to move ahead with.’

Emily Thornberry, Labour MP for Islington South and Finsbury - and an ambitious Leo

‘As the decent homes programme ends in 2010, we will start considering not just how to maintain the standard, but also how to address the other great imperative for social housing: building a lot more.

‘In the past couple of years, we have finally begun to get more subsidy to help councils and housing associations build. But the credit crunch and economic downturn have hit many private developers, whose proposals could otherwise have provided affordable housing through planning gain.

‘In 2010, I believe (and hope) councils and housing associations will build more social housing. However, there are big unknowns about what subsidies will be available, and what the effect will be if the housing revenue account system is reformed.

‘But the unknown that will have the biggest impact is the outcome of the general election. Whatever financial pressures 2010 brings, under a Labour government there will be money available for new social housing that simply will not exist if the Tories win power.’

Ian Tant, senior partner at planning and design consultancy Barton Willmore, and another well-balanced Libran

‘We enter 2010 under a cloud of uncertainty with the delivery of housing under serious threat. The recession is dramatically restricting private sector support for the provision of affordable housing: land values have plummeted, leaving little value in land with which to sustain the affordable housing requirements of recent planning permissions and policies. 

‘There is a desperate dilemma between allowing major housing developments to go ahead with reduced affordable housing or holding out until land values recover - and, by doing so, restricting the delivery of even market housing.

‘Added to this is the fear that the tightening central government purse will soon start to limit grant aid for housing.

‘Whatever the outcome of the general election, however, expect a growing trend of ‘localism’ with central government continuing to hand power back to local councils to make local decisions. 

‘For social landlords, this could allow negotiated involvement in locally-supported developments - provided funding can be secured.’

Mike Owen is a sociable Sagittarian and executive director of Cornwall Council’s ALMO, Carrick Housing

‘We are going to be under huge pressure to improve energy efficiency as the government makes climate commitments.

‘’Given the age of [most social housing] stock, we will need to retrofit - whether this will be funded through extra money or squeezing the budget from elsewhere, I can’t predict.

‘I don’t think there will be a change of government - although we may get a new housing minister as we always do.

‘The year of the election will present a huge opportunity for the newly formed National Tenant Voice [an independent public body which will be up and running in early 2010]. It will need to get ready very quickly in preparation for the vast amount of stuff that’s going to come out of the TSA.

‘I predict that local authorities will get the go-ahead for self-financing when a clear decision [on reforms to the Housing Revenue Account] is made in February.’

Bob Taylor is chief executive of the Knowsley Housing Trust in Merseyside - and another stubborn but dependable Taurean

‘With the economy and housing market continuing to be volatile, renting and shared equity will become even more established as the only alternatives for those even on average earnings to get a house they can call home.

‘Carbon emissions and climate change will dominate environmental agendas - someone will find a better name than retrofitting and housing organisations will lead the way in tackling the solutions for existing homes.

‘The work the TSA has done with the national conversation [the regulator’s consultation with residents over its new regulatory framework, due to come into force in April 2010] and in developing high level standards will be finally acknowledged as leading to a step change in housing regulation for the better.

‘Working through the pressures of the economy, rent reductions, increasing waiting lists and the need for more homes, the sector will respond - performance will continue to improve, tenant satisfaction will increase, money will be hard to find but the sector collectively will pull together for the benefit of the people who need it most - our tenants.’

An outgoing and vibrant Aries, Mark Washer is group finance director for Affinity Sutton, one of the largest housing associations in England

‘2010 will be a record year for bond issuance, as organisations working within the social housing sector turn to the capital markets [for funding].

‘Although government grants may not go down immediately next year, I think it’s safe to bet that we can expect them to go down eventually. With reduced public spending, there will be a downward pressure on rents as the government tries to reduce its housing benefits bill.

‘A number of big housing associations will revive the cross-subsidy model, which had gone away for 18 months. Generally speaking though, it’s going to be a year of uncertainty within the sector.’

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