Numbers game

The Conservatives’ planning green paper might not sound like an obvious Cupid’s arrow but the party is hoping it will woo lovesick local planners and residents.

Last week details emerged about how the party would give councils control of the planning system if it wins this year’s general election.

The paper, which is due to be published imminently and a final draft of which has been seen by Inside Housing, aims to curry favour with local authorities and communities where people are unhappy with high government house building targets.

The document proposes the abolition of the regional planning system and would revoke regional spatial strategies. It would transfer responsibility for determining the level of house building from the regions to local authorities. So what is the likely impact of the proposed changes and how could they affect the number of homes built across England?

Projections

Under the current system, all local planning authorities project the number of homes they believe are needed to meet their requirements by 2026. Known as option one numbers, these figures are submitted to regional development agencies, with both parties negotiating over the number of homes to be included in the regional spatial strategy. In many cases the government then seeks to impose significantly higher housing targets to meet projected demand.

These option one figures are important as it is these that the draft Conservative planning green paper says would be used as the starting point for local authority building plans under Tory rule.

The chasm between national housing policy and local plans is vast in some regions. Given the choice, councils in the south east would build nearly 15 per cent fewer homes between now and 2026 than the government wants.

In the Draft South East Plan covering the period between 2006 and 2026, the region’s local authorities say an average of 28,900 homes needs to be built each year, making 578,000 in total. However, the South East Regional Assembly was subsequently asked by the government to increase the delivery of new homes to 32,700 a year, making 662,750 in total - a jump of nearly 15 per cent. Regional assemblies negotiate house building targets with local authorities and then present the final figure to the government.

This apparent difference in opinion between central government and local authorities is echoed in eight out of nine of England’s regional assemblies.

Councils in the south west would build 23,060 homes annually, compared to regional plans for 29,623. In the east of England councils suggested they needed 478,000 new homes between 2001 and 2021, compared with regional demands for 508,000 new homes. Only the North East Regional Assembly would build more homes than the government would like given the choice.

Planning bodies have been quick to express their concerns over the Conservatives’ proposals, warning that such changes could reduce the output of new homes rather than boost it, as the Conservatives claim is their intention.

Roger Humber, policy advisor at the House Builders’ Association, says: ‘What the Tories seem to be saying is if local authorities don’t like the RSS they can take that out and put whatever figure they want in. What’s to stop them going below RSS recommendations?’

Although the Conservatives propose that the government of the day could make local authorities reassess their forecasts, the secretary of state would no longer have the power to change option one figures, so in theory councils could simply continue to resubmit their proposals.

Mr Humber adds: ‘We know the regional spatial strategy consultation is a big headache and we agree with the Tory criticisms of the current framework. No one is saying it is right as it stands, but they have gone too far in the other direction now.’

Catriona Riddell, cabinet member of the Planning Officers Society, says implementation of the Conservative’s plans would be ‘the end of effective strategic planning’.

‘While the proposals to abolish everything regional were expected, the gap between a national planning framework and local plans is simply too great,’ she adds.

Long-term plans

The Conservatives acknowledge that the proposal to accept option one submissions as a starting point for council plans is an interim measure, adding that the party would introduce a housing and planning bill, which would amend the process, in the first session of Parliament if elected.

Grant Shapps, shadow housing minister, said the figures in fact reveal ‘the ineffectiveness of arbitrary numbers handed down from central government’.

‘Labour’s housing targets have failed to deliver just like the Soviet Union’s tractor targets all those decades ago,’ he said. ‘We need to give power back to communities and their representatives while introducing real financial incentives. That cash coupled with innovative local housing trusts will increase development and build the homes we need.’

John Slaughter, director of external affairs at the Home Builders’ Federation, says new legislation could be in place within a year of a Conservative housing and planning bill, but that it would take time to impose the new rules and framework, meaning it could be two to three years before a new system was fully operational.

‘The longer the hiatus, the greater risk option one figures become an issue in some regions,’ he states. ‘The key is to ensure the new procedures that are introduced go through as efficiently as possible so that we don’t build up a greater shortfall.’

Not everyone is critical of the proposals, however, and the existing planning system would not be missed in many regions if it were to be scrapped. Mike Bawden, chair of South West Regional Assembly’s planning group, has gone on record stating that the assembly has criticised figures imposed by the government and stated future development should be about quality and ‘not another round of the numbers game’.

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