Greedy RSL's??
Posted in: Discussion | Policy forum
18/09/2009 9:10 am
This is one for the development people out there. I work for a council, trying to increase the affordable housing in the region. Recently I am becoming increasingly frustrated by the stance of RSL's when it comes to valuing, and paying for, properties. I realise the crash has meant that Shared Ownership is dead and open market sales are few and very far inbetween and therefore cross subsidisation on sites is nil. However in terms of evaluating sites etc the goalposts are shifting at an alarming rate. The HCA have to take a fair share of the blame as they have been rashly paying out rates as high as £70-80k per unit as opposed to the "old" £49k and RSL's have simply assumed ths will continue. My main gripe is that when it comes to using Proval, all of a sudden properties are being based on a 30 year payback period when previously up to 40 years were used. Are these buildings going to suddenly crumble after 30 years? The 10 year difference in evaluating units can equate to £10k per unit or more, which can be the difference between the developer being happy to proceed, or, more importantly, reducing the "ask" to the HCA and securing a more realistic grant level. Can any development staff out there enlighten me why all of a sudden the 30 year payback is taking over? If people quote "prudence" I'll take that with the large bit of salt it deserves, with the exception of pathfinder type projects that are often in areas that have seen widescale failure of housing schemes I can't see why longer payback periods can't be used. Can anyone enlighten me?
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this discussion
Sort: Newest first | Oldest first
Author
Message
18/09/2009 1:26 pm
Harry, speaking as a 'Development person', this is something that has always baffled me. What you describe, however, is not a general shift across all RSLs. I have worked for RSLs that use anywhere between 25 and 60 years as their payback period.
Those of us in development are always fighting for a 60 year period to make us as competitive as possible. After all, that's how long the HCA tell us the buildings are supposed to stand up for.
My understanding of the variation between payback periods is that they are related to the profile of people's loans. An RSL that doesn't have a lot of capital to spend will assess a scheme on the basis of obtaining finance for it as a stand-alone, and that will be offered on a repayment of period of 25-30 years. Where they've got more money, it's up to 60 years (although 40 is far more common).
There are plenty of other factors to take into account, though. For instance, an RSL may have a 60 year payback on its loan but have a higher interest rate than one with a shorter loan period, so it's not quite as easy as just adding another ten years.
The short answer, I guess, is that payback periods have got shorter as a result of the current economic climate. Longer loans are less available and more expensive, and RSLs are running a bit scared and making their models more robust. To be honest, I don't know what the word is, but it occupies the space between 'greed' and 'prudence'.
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
18/09/2009 1:52 pm
Here's a techie answer. The world has got a lot riskier recently, and investors require higher return for higher risk.
You can put a price on risk through the discount rate used in appraisals - the higher the risk, the higher the discount rate (or the higher the required IRR hurdle rate).
But most development staff and board members don't understand discount rates, and nobody except accountants understands IRRs.
Reducing the period from 60 yrs to 45 yrs in our scheme appraisals has roughly the same effect as increasing the discount rate from 6% to 8%, but it's an awful lot easier to explain than why you're discounting at 8% when you're borrowing at 5%....
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
18/09/2009 2:34 pm
I take the "risk" argument on board to a point, but essentially RSL finance is about the closest to a "sure thing" that I can think of, financially so why they get treated the same as everyone, I don't know. I hope with the emergence of the massive RSL's that is occurring through rationalisation and mergers that more will "go to the markets" like Circle Anglia and others and raise their own finance through bonds which hopefully wil improve the capital available. I totally understand RSL's not loaning more at the moment when the only way the banks will allow that to happen is if they refinance all ther outstanding loans at that %. That's always baffled me - If I have a mortgage and take out a further loan I've never had a lender demand to me to take my mortgage into account if I want £5k to buy a car.....
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
18/09/2009 3:11 pm
Jobes. I am staggered. If you work for an RSL where the development staff don't understand Dicount Rates or IRRs, those staff should not be on the front line dealing with millions of pounds. If the board members don't the whole organisation should be under supervision.
Harry, most RSLs go to the market for finance (and normally get a much better deal than Circle...). The rates at which we borrow are already very low, but they have gone up a bit.
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
21/09/2009 12:33 pm
Sancho, sorry, I exaggerate for effect (it's that Friday afternoon feeling). I can assure that the board members who make the decisions on our development schemes are very experienced financial people, and Finance keeps Development on a fairly short leash!
I was really just pointing out that there is more than one way to skin a cat - shortening the appraisal period is a way of tightening the approval criteria just as much as is increasing the discount rate, and easier to explain to non-financial people, as it's more intuitive to think in terms of 'payback periods' than internal rates of return.
Call it RSL greed if you like (in response to the original post); given the increased uncertainty in the current environment, I'd call it prudence.
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
21/09/2009 12:41 pm
Mon, 21 Sep 2009 12:33 GMT ....I can assure that the board members who make the decisions on our development schemes are very experienced financial people, and Finance keeps Development on a fairly short leash!"",....
Do your board members also keep a short leash on salaries for thier chief executives?...
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
21/09/2009 3:13 pm
In my experience, prices drop and so do RSL offers, but that is because they have a financial responsibility as a whole association - we can't and shouldn't 'overpay' for land or property - we are just artificially proping up the market if we do so.
Increased grant or reduced pay periods also does a good job of protecting that Association's 'gearing'. Which is good news for our existing tenants that we are not risky or reckless and can operate as a viable business.
The background workings in proval are 'managed' by the Financial Directorate normally - so even within an association the payback periods can change from time to time.
It's not the buildings crumbling after 30 or 40 years - it's the financial payback periods that are agreed for that lending. So a good 'lending rate' (normally accompanied by a savvy Financial Director) can make a huge difference.
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
21/09/2009 3:23 pm
Vee, you've hit on part of my point, when you mention that prices drop and RSL offers drop, that isn't giving the full picture. Whlilst the land and labour prices have dropped, the amount of ther own reserves RSL's are prepared to put into schemes has virtually vanished. For example a £100k unit used to get £49k HC funding, the rest met by RSL. Recently the unit might only cost £95k, the HCA funding has gone up to £65k and the new calculations applied by RSL's relating to payback etc mean they're reluctant to even move forwad on these terms, effectively a new house, with likely rental income of £5k a year for a net £30k outlay. I know the lack of cross subsidisation as mentioned, but I fail to see how they can't use longer payment periods that would lessen pressure on the HCA, as the initial ask would be less and get schemes moving again. Gearing, as far as I'm aware refers to the amount of money a body has lent, not the period of time they chosse to pay it back over (I'm happy to be corrected on that)
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
21/09/2009 4:01 pm
The point is, Harry, that the long, cheap loans don't exist anymore. You can either have a loan with a shorter term, or a long term loan with a higher rate. Either way, there isn't a way around it for the RSLs.
I can't remember the last time I came across an RSL that had money in its 'reserves' to put into schemes. It all got spent when the Government dreamt up Decent Homes.
The real problem you've got is that the developers paid too much for land and aren't willing to take the hit. That's the genius of the 3 Dragons model that all Councils use without question. If you pay too much for the land, affordable housing is suddenly not reasonable to ask for. And they wondered what was propping land prices up for so long.....
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply
22/09/2009 12:13 pm
Sancho has hit on a relevant point which is if you are stumping up the money for the rest of the project just from the rents and borrowing against that scheme the less value in the scheme (ie. the valuation) the worse the lending.
The cross subsidy is a very relevant point on this - but not as direct subsisdy to it - without that income from the sales on completion of units - then the cash flow performs significantly worse because you haven't got any 'block' payments coming in that make the interest and payments work over a reasonble period.
Unsuitable or offensive? Report this reply




