Posted by: Jules Birch08/02/2012 12:55 pm
The Bank of England seems set to announce another round of quantitative easing on Thursday. Is that good news or bad news for housing - and is it time to consider an alternative?
QE is presented as the Bank’s only option for stimulating the economy given that it has already cut interest rates to a record low of 0.5 per cent. To simplify massively, it creates liquidity by creating money to buy assets like government bonds. The institutions holding the bonds then have new money in their accounts, which they use to buy other bonds and shares. The net effect is to reduce long-term interest rates and stimulate the economy.
The scheme boosts asset prices and increases inflation but that is seen to be a price worth paying for getting the economy out of the hole it fell into after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The Bank released £200 billion of QE in 2009 and 2010 and another £75 billion in October. Following figures last week showing a big fall in the money supply it is set to do more on Thursday.
But what about the effect on housing? QE is generally credited with putting a floor under house prices, which is good news if you already own a home but very bad news if you are struggling to get on to the housing ladder and paying a high rent. House prices, remember, are already propped up by ultra low interest rates that have reduced mortgage payments by thousands of pounds for anyone who can raise a deposit.
The problems don’t stop there. According to the Bank’s own analysis QE has increased the rate of inflation by between 0.75 and 1.5 percentage points. That has led to direct increases in rents for social tenants because they are linked to a formula of RPI inflation plus 0.5 per cent. If QE had never happened, landlords around the country would not need to be imposing such large rent increases at a time when their tenants are already suffering from falling incomes.
So what’s the alternative? It’s one I’ve mentioned before that is slowly gaining some traction. What if quantitative easing could be used to invest in new homes rather than buy financial assets?
Instead of government bonds, the Bank could buy bonds in a public interest company with a remit to build homes for future sale to the private or social sectors. A public interest company would be at arm’s length from the government and therefore not caught by restrictions on public borrowing. remit not to hold
A £50 billion scheme could potentially finance 500,000 homes, create 20,000 jobs and generate £10 billion for the Treasury in taxes generated and benefits saved without taking account of the knock-on effects for the wider economy. Rents on the homes could pay any interest in the short term and in the longer term the sales proceeds could go back to the Bank.
The scheme could be tied into some of the innovations in housing finance being developed by social landlords. It could generate the type and scale of stock that institutional investors say they need before they take the plunge into the private rented sector and be a way for the government to de-risk private rented investment without using public money. It’s surely also a good way of using the precious resource of public land.
The obvious objections seem to be more ones of mind-set than substance. A backdoor scheme for increased borrowing? Not if all the money was repaid on the sale of the properties and it generated a healthy return for the taxpayer in the meantime. Wrongful use of a scheme intended purely for financial instruments? It may be difficult for the Bank to move outside its financial comfort zone but it would still be buying financial instruments and this would give the Bank a more varied range of assets to sell when the time comes to unwind QE.
Above all, perhaps, there seems no chance of the government achieving its ambition of using housing as a key part of its growth strategy without an extra weapon like this at its disposal. Brian Green argues on his Brickonomics blog that the scheme could be just the ‘big bazooka’ that Grant Shapps needs to stand a chance of meeting the target against which he said he wanted to be judged: building more homes than Labour. He also has more detail about how a public interest company might work and roles for the Bank, Treasury and HCA.
Without something like QE for housing, we seem stuck with housing completions at half the level needed to meet demand (even in 2016 Savills is predicting just 125,000). With it, and with the right approach to land assembly and managing the construction programme, we stand a chance of building the homes and delivering the growth we need.
The scheme has just won the backing of one of the leading trade bodies in the construction industry. The Construction Products Association, which represents the firms that make the materials and products that go into new homes, says it will be writing to the Chancellor to point out the advantages. Time for housing organisations to do the same?
The details would need to be worked up by people with more financial expertise than me. It’s possible that there is a fundamental flaw that I have missed. But doesn’t a QE that builds homes and creates jobs sound a hell of a lot better than a QE that boosts house prices and raises rents?
From Inside edge
Housing commentator Jules Birch puts the latest news in context