AS the government's housing agencies work on the market rescue plan demanded by housing minister Caroline Flint, one consolation is that at least they have some inside knowledge of the market where prices are falling fastest.

New figures from the Nationwide this morning show that prices in Sheffield - the old stomping ground of Homes and Communities Agency chief executive Sir Bob Kerslake - have fallen an amazing 17% in the last year. That gives the city the dubious privilege of topping a league table ahead of Belfast (-11%), Birmingham, Manchester and Coventry (all -9%).

The second quarter figures give the first regional picture of the housing market crash. The Nationwide said prices were down 0.9% in the UK in June, 6.3% in the last year and 7.5% since their peak in October.

Unsurprisingly, given its spectacular price rises in the last two years, Northern Ireland is leading the way down with an 18.6% fall in prices since the second quarter of 2007. Scotland is the only region where prices are still higher than a year ago. Prices fell in Wales and all 10 English regions, with the downturn spreading to London and the South East.  

The big question now is how much further prices will fall. Housebuilders already seem to be factoring in a 15% decline - the amount by which Taylor Wimpey cut the valuation of its landbank yesterday. However, as Brian Green argues in his blog on construction and economics, the problem for them is that nobody really knows when the bottom will be reached.

The Nationwide argues that transactions are the key to house price movements and they are plummeting. Bank of England figures for mortgage approvals yesterday showed they were down 28% between April and May and 64% on a year ago.

Mortgage lenders tend to look on the bright side, so the outlook from chief economist Fionnuala Earley qualifies as distinctly bearish. 'With house purchase transactions so far below their long term trend it seems unlikely that there will be any rapid turnaround in housing market fortunes in the coming months. However, as prices continue to fall affordability measures become more favourable for those in a well financed position to be able to buy.'

Posted by Jules Birch, July 1

Posted in House prices, Housing market, Housebuilding, Homes and Communities Agency

SIR BOB Kerslake may not have made the same waves with his first speech as his boss did but he still gave some useful pointers about the direction in which he intends to lead the Homes and Communities Agency (HCA).

Speaking at the Chartered Institute of Housing annual dinner, he left the audience in no doubt about just how much the new agency will have on its plate when it starts work in April. He named the national affordable housing programme, eco-towns, growth area, decent homes, housing market renewal, surplus public sector land, the Thames Gateway, homelessness, urban regeneration, the Academy for Sustainable Communities and energy efficiency - and that's just an edited list.

Sir Bob's job will be delivering on all those government targets - and it was the terms he used to describe that delivery that were perhaps the most interesting thing about his speech. Remember that the HCA is a merger of the Housing Corporation, English Partnerships and a few bits of the CLG. How many times does the man taking over the funding of housing associations mention them?  Once.

In contrast, he mentions local authorities or local government nine times - and not just in passing but as at the heart of what the new agency will be doing. For example:

* 'I think the HCA is essentially about one thing – creating opportunity. The opportunity for people to live in homes they can afford in places want to live in. And the opportunity for local authorities and communities to deliver the ambitions they have for their own area.'

* 'Local authorities and their partners are the experts on their areas.'

* 'Our task will be to help local authorities and their partners deliver their plans - the HCA will be local government's best delivery partner.'

* 'We will work with local authorities that want to take forward innovative new approaches to delivery.' 

* Key to delivering on government targets 'for me will be the ability to have a single conversation with local authorities and their partners on the delivery of the full range of their housing and regeneration initiatives'.

This new emphasis on 'local authorities and their partners' was predictable - the government would hardly have appointed a local authority chief executive to head the new agency otherwise - but it is also overdue and intelligent. For much of the last 20 years local authorities have been reluctant partners at best as they have faced waves of competitive tendering, the loss of their role in new build, stock transfer and funding squeezes. This is not turning back the clock but central government needs their enthusiastic cooperation if it is to stand any chance of delivering on its housebuilding plans - and it knows it. 

Posted by Jules Birch, Feb 7 

Posted in Local government, Homes and Communities Agency

THE NATIONAL Housing Federation [NHF] has come out fighting ahead of this week's committee stage of the Housing and Regeneration Bill by dubbing it 'the greatest threat ever to the independence of housing associations'.

A bulletin issued to members today [download PDF here] identifies eight key threats to associations including their ability to raise private finance, create neighbourhood services, and manage their own affairs plus the imposition of additional responsibilities, red tape and costs. The NHF has been lobbying ministers since the second reading of the Bill in late November but, according to chief executive David Orr, it has got nowhere: 'I have had a number of conversations with ministers, and CLG  officials, and told them plainly what the threats in the Bill are – but they seem unwilling to alter the damaging clauses.'

The NHF is speaking out now because the committee stage of the bill starts on Thursday. The bill creates the new Homes and Communities Agency (HCA), with a powerful brief to drive through government housebuilding plans, and the Office for Tenants and Social Landlords (OFTSL), with a brief to improve accountability to tenants.

On one level, it's not hard to see why the government is sticking to its guns. Those are both key government objectives - so why shouldn't it legislate to push them through? And why shouldn't organisations that have benefitted from billions of pounds worth of public subsidy through social housing grant and housing benefit be expected to fall in line?

For the NHF though, the bill will give the secretary of state powers to direct OFTSL to set standards for associations. This amounts to 'policy passporting' that would compel 'associations to act as agents of the state'. OFTSL would have the power to regulate non-housing activity, which would stifle innovation. It will be able to intervene when a new standard is not met as opposed to just in cases of mismanagement and misconduct, leaving associations vulnerable to sanctions 'for mere failure to follow central government policy'. All this and they will be expected to pay £20m a year to fund OFTSL at the same time as private developers competing for housing grant pay nothing.

The nub of the issue though is associations' status as private organisations. That is what has underpinned the last 20 years of government housing policy and enabled associations to raise billions of pounds in private finance. The worry is that if they are forced to follow government dictats so closely sooner or later they will be seen as part of the public sector - and unable to raise funds outside of public borrowing constraints.

That ambiguity has always been there. Associations have always been quasi-private for financial purposes and quasi-public for political ones. The Housing Corporation has always had the power to intervene in associations' affairs (just ask anyone involved with Ujima). However, the crucial difference in the bill appears to be that OFTSL will give the government a direct chain of command rather than the last ability to intervene as a last resort. 

It's not exactly clear how any reclassification of associations as public bodies could be triggered - though the government statistics service is newly independent - but that would be such a disaster for government housing policy that is is hard not to see a compromise being reached. It is hard too to imagine that a standing committee packed with housing experience - including former housing minsters Nick Raynsford and Sir George Young, who raised many of the same concerns in the second reading debate - will not find a solution that will satisfy everyone.

Posted by Jules Birch, Jan 8   

Posted in Housing associations, Politics , Homes and Communities Agency, Office for Tenants and Social Landlords

SO JUST who is Sir Bob Kerslake? As widely expected, the Sheffield City Council chief executive was confirmed as the first head of the Homes and Communities Agency and will start work in March 2008.

What's perhaps most interesting about his appointment is that he comes from local government rather than the development industry or a housing association. The bare facts of his career are that he is a 52-year-old accountant who rose through the ranks in local government and spent six years as chief executive at Hounslow before taking charge at Sheffield in 1997. But the digital footprint he's left behind suggest two very different verdicts on what he's achieved.

Supporters say he's the man who saved Sheffield from industrial decline and disasters such as the world student games and helped bring it into the 21st century with bold regeneration plans - just the man to play a key role in delivering the government's housebuilding plans. Critics argue that being responsible for the demolition of thousands of council houses is a curious apprenticeship for the new job.

The divisions show up in feedback from readers of the Sheffield Star. 'Worst of all, demolition of 8,000 houses and dwellings to take part in John Prescott's programme of demolishing them all over the North to keep up housing prices and show "recovery",' says one. 'We were lucky to have someone so committed to the revival of the city - Sheffield is a much better place than it was 10 years ago,' contends another.

Over at the online Sheffield Forum, opinion is equally divided. 'House building Tsar?' asks one contributor. 'Don't you mean luxury apartment building Tsar?' But another has much more time for him: 'I would say that the Sir Bob is very likeable, decent and competent at what he does. Hence Knighthood. I also think he was an excellent figurehead and conducted himself very well during the recent floods.'

One more thing new colleagues at the HCA might like to remember: according to the Sheffield Star again, 'he is known at the town hall for his dedication to his job, sometimes arriving for work as early as 6.30am'.

Posted in Local government, Homes and Communities Agency