24 October 2007 12:54
IT WILL take a while for the detailed numbers to be crunched but yesterday's increased population projections make it almost inevitable that the government will have to increase its 240,000 homes a year target for England.
This morning's newspapers - go here for the Guardian's coverage - concentrate on migration and the reasons why the Office for National Statistics is projecting that the UK population will rise by 10m over the next 25 years from 60.6m to 71.1m. However, they will also have profound implications for the household projections and for future levels of housebuilding and house prices.
It was only in March this year that the CLG increased the household projections for England from 209,000 to 223,000. This took into account increased 2004-based population projections and in turn triggered the housing green paper's target of 240,000 additional homes a year to deliver 2m new homes by 2016 and 3m by 2020.
Yesterday's population projections are 2006-based and envisage - on top of the previous projections - an extra 1.7m people in the UK by 2016 and an extra 4m by 2031. The population of England is proejcted to increase in line with that from 50.7m now to 54.7m in 2016, 56.8m in 2021 and 60.4m in 2031.
The household projections are based on detailed calculations of the nature, regional breakdown and composition of new households. But 1.5m extra people would have to be housed in England by 2016. If they needed 500,000 homes might that 240,000 target soon be looking more like 300,000?
Looking even longer term, the Optimum Population Trust think tank says that an extra 15m homes could be required over the next 75 years to accomodate a population of 85m by 2081.
The figures are of course only projections, but the implications are not just long term. In a statement this morning, the Local Government Association say the ONS population data is 'woefully inadequate' for meeting local needs. Because nobody knows where migrants are going, the extra money they generate is not being redistributed to the areas that need it. The LGA says: 'The shortcomings of official population figures is placing pressure on services like education and housing and can even lead to unnecessary tension and conflict.'
Posted by Jules Birch, October 24
Posted in Migration, Housebuilding