Away from the election aftermath, the housing market is looking as confused as the political situation.
In a survey released this morning the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) detects a Spring bounce, with a surge in the number of its members reporting price rises and expecting them in future. London led the way but every region except Wales and Yorkshire and Humberside saw an improvement.
In contrast the Halifax index released on Friday showed that prices fell 0.1% in April. That took the annual rate of house price inflation to 6.6%, the highest since the October 2007, but the bank said the rate was now slowing down as the improvement prompted more people to put their properties on to the market.
The evidence for that was the March RICS survey showing that the ratio of completed sales to stock fell for the fourth month in a row, indicating a loosening in market conditions. The Halifax is sticking to its view that prices will be flat this year.
But the April RICS survey showed that the sales to stock ratio improved for the first time in 2010. The organisation interprets that as evidence that the prospect of an election had dampened demand from buyers but that a spring bounce was now underway.
Confused? Two surveys from estate agent Knight Frank in the last few days show how the market is facing both ways at once.
Yesterday it revealed that average residential land prices rose by 11.5%, the strongest rate of growth since 2005. Demand was especially strong in the south of England.
But on Friday, it released forecasts for the housing market based on different hung parliament scenarios. A stable Conservative-led government would mean modest price falls and a slow growth in sales over 2010. An unstable coalition would risk higher inflation and interest rates and therefore higher mortgage arrears and defaults. It says prices will end the year 3% lower but continue to be split between an active middle to upper end and a more depressed lower end.
So perhaps the wildly varying surveys are not that contradictory after all? Low interest rates and government support schemes have propped up the housing and land market so far and Spring usually sees a bounce. But how much longer before rates rise and the cuts start?
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