Wondering what things are going to be like when the axe falls on public spending in England? Just take a quick look at what’s already happening in Scotland.
While housing groups south of the border sharpen their arguments ahead of cuts in the Budget expected in March and - if the Conservatives win the election - an emergency budget to follow that, the talk north of the border is already of actual cuts.
The Scottish Parliament approved a budget for 2010/11 last week that will see spending on housing and regeneration cut by £179m or 29%. That comes before any cuts in the UK government budget and it drew immediate condemnation from groups like Shelter Scotland.
But the axe will fall across the public sector and the cuts will be exacerbated by falls in the revenue local councils get from charges and fees. There are already warnings of job cuts in services like education and social services.
The situation is even more sobering when you realise that all of this comes before any cuts in the UK government budget. The SNP government argues it is the consequence of fund being brought forward to 2009/10 because of the recession - something that also happened in England, especially in housing - but critics also point to its pledge to freeze the council tax.
Officials are warning of cuts of 20% in real terms over the next seven years and the government has set up an independent review to study how to implement them. That in turn has raised uncomfortable parallels with Ireland, where an even deeper banking and financial crisis led to a similar review last summer that recommended not just public sector job cuts but cuts in welfare payments too.
Back in England, with the National Housing Federation highlighting consequences of the slump in housebuilding today, you get the feeling that it’s only a matter of time before we feel the pain too.
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