Might this be the beginning of the end of the house price mini-boom? For the first time since the credit crunch surveyors are reporting an increase in instructions to sell property in all regions.
Along with record low interest rates, lack of supply has been one of the main reasons why prices have risen so much recently. According to the Halifax October index published last week prices are up 7.1% in the last six months but the bank also detected signs that more people were putting their homes on the market.
That seems to be confirmed in the October housing market survey published today by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The balance of surveyors reporting an increase in instructions to sell rose to +15% from +5% in September. It was positive in every region of England and Wales and the rise was strongest in the North, South West, London and Yorkshire and Humberside.
The increase in supply is significant given that low interest rates mean there are fewer forced sellers than in previous recessions. Sooner or later, all the artificial stimulus of quantitative easing, stimulus spending and those low rates will be withdrawn.
It’s only a tentative indicator - the stock of unsold properties on the average surveyor’s books was unchanged for the third month in a row - but if it is sustained it should start to take some of the heat out of the market.
For the moment the market is still rising. There was another big jump in the balance of surveyors reporting price rises rather than falls and the market in London looks stronger than at any time since 1996 - but for how much longer?
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