The rise of the private rented sector
16/07/2012 10:26 am
Later this morning the census 2011 dat is to be released an this has already seen many comments across all media that it is expected to show a 3m population rise.
One comment struck me which said if we have 3m more people then where are they housed?
The English Housing Survey release last week tells us that at Figure 1.2 by revealing 1.49m additional households in 2011 (21.993m) than in 2001.
Breaking that 1.49m increase down is revealing. 9100 more owner occupied households. 157,000 less households in the social rented sector, AND REVEALINGLY 1,556,000 more households in the private rented sector.
The EHS shows a 6% increase in number of owner occupied homes, a 4% fall in socially rented homes and a massive 75% incresae in private sector households to 3.617m in 2011 from 2.061m in 2001.
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16/07/2012 11:14 am
Does this equation mean that housing benefit bill to the ezchequer will fall anytime soon? Or does it just mean that the private rented sector will see hyper-inflationary increases whilst supply continues to stagnat...nay ossify. The result can only be grinding poverty for increasing numbers of our community. The writing is nolonger on the wall, it has drilled down to the very footings of the building. We are beyond crisis, we are in a hostage situation where people no longer have a choice, pay up the extorted rents or continue to move further and further out of town. The answer, as the Chinese have found is to build, build, build, soical housing affordable and plentiful if not then reap the bitter harvest of mass social unrest. Oh and by doing so stimualte construction etc....million construction workers lying idle, 1.9 miliion households without a home...do the maths.
16/07/2012 12:40 pm
Sorry - not sure what the question is because you seem to have answered it yourself?!
16/07/2012 1:21 pm
There was no question MFM just a statement of factual reporting of data.
You can derive what you will from the facts such as:-
(a) PRS expanding by 156,000 households per year
(b) HB bill rocketing as avg HB is 41% higher there
(c) If PRS can bring online 156,000 properties per year and we need 225,000 then SRS only needs to provide one-third of total
(d) Population increase of 3.7m announced today - avg household is 2.4 people so 1.556m x 2.4 = 3.7m
16/07/2012 2:30 pm
I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that this isn't all some masterplan by the Tories but that they simply do not know what they are doing.
Rather than it being a grand conspiracy, whats actually happening is that are society is now so divided and the elite so secure in being able to protect jobs for themselves regardless of whether they have any talent that many get jobs without experience. they are so far removed from the life of ordinary people they simply can't comprehend what the reality is for the average person.
as a result, they make decisions which are so stupid that they do not realise that it will actually damage the chances of the Tories getting back in.
it all comes down to a simplistic belief amongst the rich that they got where they are through talent and hard work and that by reducing the state and letting everyone sort themselves out, everything will work out fine and they will keep their position not through rigging things but because they genuinely believe they have achieved everything through hard work.
17/07/2012 9:38 am
Check the rise of HMO's, other sub division of houses/flats, overcrowding etc - the evidence is out there; the existing stock is just being stretched further!
17/07/2012 12:16 pm
DH - Yes as I forecast would happen why HB caps were announced back in 2010 (plenty on here) as the system encourages sub-division. Why, if you are a PSL would you limit your income to the cap level if sub-division into bedsits provides much more in income?
To over simplify why let out a 4 bedroomed 2 living room property at £400pw maximum income when it can be subdivided into 5 bedsits each getting £125pw? £400pw income easily and at little cost now produces £625pw - a 56% increase in income realising £11,740 more pa in income.
MFM - I agree with much of that - that this is largely ignorance of what will happen and inevitably happen, though the obvious example I give must have been foreseeable.
17/07/2012 2:13 pm
"the obvious example I give must have been foreseeable."
Lot's of it is forseeble but this appears to be entirely ideological so unfortunately it requires much more of us who oppose it. it requires coordinated campaigns/protests such as those that have been succesful by the members of 38 Degrees which includes such a broad church.
I have been discussing the issue of the housing benefit cap with my mp (amongst other things). i provided research from everyone including the Mayors Offices, charities, independent research organisations such as Cambridge Centre for Housing Research and he ignored it all and refused to answer my main claim which is that - if you put the moral arguments to one side - making tens of thousands of people homeless and forcing them out of london to areas where there aren't jobs or support networks will COST the state.
its like the Enlightenment never happened.
being ideological, quoting facts only does so much. broad campaigns are needed to oppose much of this.
18/07/2012 12:08 pm
MFM - you expect an 'enlightened' MP?
Tell your MP that the latest HB figures released today reveal that 10,000 working families have been added to the HB claimant count every month and they get full HB too - a damning indictment of Britain's low pay economy.
The full figures and detail are commented upon here http://wp.me/p1vuvL-eI
PS - HB rose by £600m in April
18/07/2012 2:22 pm
I've told him it all and been exhaustive in challenging him over the past two years. What has happened is that he has changed tack and decided that the taxpayer is "subsidising" people who are getting large amounts of housing benefit and that this shouldn't continue.
He also said that he met someone who was forced to move because of the housing benefit cap and "he was fine with it". he however always goes on to state that this is the only way to reduce the deficit which means he refuses to consider the facts.
the same lib dem MP in a reply to one question asked me: "who are these people in poverty?"
There has to be many different lines of attack and the stats are only one - although a very important one, and I really appreciate your research as I will use it in my next discussion with him.
18/07/2012 3:27 pm
What saddens me more Joe is that the scale of additional private rented homes has not involved any considerable extent of new building, simply the recycling of former home, and a large number of former social homes at that, into cash cows and multiple occupation rabbit hutches.
What should sadden people more is that we are all paying through the nose for this through ever higher housing benefit simply to house people in conditions that until recently were considered unsuitable, and 60 years ago were considered unfit.
But saddest of all is the still popular game of scapegoating groups for blame instead of seeing the reality of cause and reason behind the undersupply and unaffordability of housing.