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What does the future hold?
14/05/2011 6:53 pm
Basically I am wondering if people could tell me what the feel the future of housing (in any shape of the word you want to take that as) will look lke in the next 5 years and then try and take a guess at what it will look like by 2025.
There is no particular point to this just interested in what peoples opinions are.
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14/05/2011 10:19 pm
If Shapps wins the argument then in five years housing will be split into four types. Exclusive, as enjoyed by his friends and himself, Basic, for those with some means, and transitory for those without. The fourth category will be for those between basic and transitory, which will be expensively housed by a slum lord. In simple terms this will be as things were over 100 years previously.
In 2025, I'd hope the country would have regained its sense of self respect and finally turned its back on the creed of greed, and a housing for all policy will have returned - however, it will take far longer to undo the damage of the past 30-years, especially with the proposed wrecking crew of the coming couple of years.
15/05/2011 8:12 am
I believe we will see a massive increase in the number of properties built for purely shared ownership/ outright by or S106 agreements in place.
I firmly believe that now government funding has all but gone to HA's (funding from the HCA aside) there is no more incentive to build social rented accommodation, as such it makes no business sense to build for a market where you wont make any money.
15/05/2011 10:10 am
Thanks both - very good ideas.
Chris - how could we tackle the slum point you are talking about. I am glad that you see a future at the end of quite a long tunnel.
Will - Interesting point do you think banks would actually provide mortgages again for such high levels of owner ocupation. What will happen to those that cannot afford O/O.
I am just interested in debate no criticisms of anyones ideas.
15/05/2011 8:41 pm
Regulation is the only way of ensuring the wrongly motivated are not coming forward as landlords - that's standards for accomodation and levels of rent that would be regulated.
This was how the slumlords were cleared out before, but this was also coupled with an investment in affordable socially rented housing as an alternative to the slumlord conditions.
Only the combination of regulation and social investment can deliver a housing for all future.
16/05/2011 4:22 pm
I couldn't guess at 2025, but I suspect that in 5 years time the waiting list for social housing will be no smaller, but eligibility for it reduced to a few groups. The desirability of home-ownership doesn't seem to be changing, but given that interest rates have to rise at some point and many owner-occupiers trapped by large mortgages from the boom years I don't see a huge opportunity for growth in this area. Private rents are high and will probably continue to grow as interest rates go up so I suspect those in private rented who aspire to own a home will find it difficult to do so unless the ecomomy and salaries pick up.
I see peoples standard of accommodation deteriorating in the next 5 years as people struggle to pay higher rents/ mortgages.
I hope that in 25 years supply and demand accross all tenures will be better, with more viable options for the low/average income earner. A recent report on IH suggested that teenagers expect to own a home, so it seems that the ownership culture is to remain embedded for the forsseable future
16/05/2011 11:23 pm
An interesting question. I expect London to be almost exactly the same as it is now in both 5 and 25 years time. The housing need is so high and the wealth so vast that it is a genuine housing market across the board, with so many niches that it will continue to operate. I expect the number of transfers to reduce and communities to mature or stagnate, depending on your point of view. The good places will improve, the bad places will go downhill. HAs will continue to merge and the resulting larger organisations will turn more towards market housing in order to create subsidy for social housing. The number of new social homes will reduce in the short term but increase again in the longer term so that we achieve some kind of equilibrium.
Outside London, there will be an increase in social tenancies, with the market driven almost entirely by new affordable housing developments and buy-to-let landlords. Smaller regional towns, especially in the Midlands and North West will become dumping grounds for the poor and needy up until Government incentives attract businesses that bring employment opportunities with them. The towns that have survived the tempest will then being to flourish, at the expense of some of their neigbours. In 25 years, some towns will have had a 'renaissance' and some will be worse than they are already. Overall, everything will be the same, but distributed differently.
Everything in Midsomer will be fine, but people will keep getting murdered.
17/05/2011 8:17 am
Chris - interesting point do you feel it was regulation that lead to clearances of the slums or the change in the class system following the first world war and the progression from there on?
Nonnies - if abysmal what can be done to prevent these prospcts being so abysmal?
Sancho -that is a really interesting theory as well in your mind we are looking at housing led migration and then economic stimulation in the lon term (almost a reversal of the way it happened in times of high economic activity). Like you Sancho growcocerned at Midsmerand have written many letters to my MP suggesting a higher police presence and maybe a return to form of Bergerac.
17/05/2011 9:10 am
In 5 years little discernable change from now. There will still bea dearth of good quality affordable housing (socail or not) and ownership will still be the pinnacle of most peoples aspirations.
In 25 years again I'd see little change. Housing is a slow moving world given the nature of the built environment. Looking back 25 years to 1986 what was substantially different? Some of the estates from that period (in London) have changed dramtically in terms of tenure with the growth of leaseholders (both residential and buy-to-let). Will that change going forward? I doubt it as there isn't the political will to do so. All three major parties are basically different shades of grey and the right have established the widely held notion that social housing is only for the disenfrachised and that having a good quality home at a fair rent is not something that the state should ensure.
The roots of the problems faced today are not just a legacy of RTB but of much poor quality housing. built for the right reasons but with short term planning, from 50+ years ago. To address this issues requires a consensus across all parties (as we once had) to support social housing and to plan long-term and not just for the life of any given government.
There is a chance that the changes to the HRA may allow councils to start doing some of this IF central government can just allow them to do so and make a commitment not to come back at a later date and raid the pot if councils make a success of running their stock. Something that they have so far conspicuously failed to do!
As for RSLs they need to broken up from the giant country wide monoliths to their consituent parts and there needs to be a growth in the co-operative sector allowing residents to take greater control where they want to.
Chances of any of this happening? Slim to none.