Chance to make a new case

As Theresa May starts unpacking at Downing Street after her expedited arrival, so the opportunity to make a new case to government has arrived sooner than expected. After the historic Brexit vote, landlords have a clear ask of the new prime minister: flexibility.

The referendum result, and the stock market and exchange rate volatility and credit rating downgrades that followed swiftly after, have focused minds on the outlook for housing in the next recession.

After the 2008 crunch and recession that nobody saw coming, predictions of a looming downturn abound. Regardless of their accuracy, there is one certainty: there will be another recession. When it arrives, warnings that recent housing policy has undermined the counter-cyclical balance that the sector has provided until now will be put to the test.

The worst case scenario is that this change destroys the delicate housing market ecosystem: housebuilding will all but stop, supply will fall further behind the national housing need, and skills and capacity will be drained from the construction industry.

In the meantime, many fear greater volatility over the course of the next couple of years as Brexit negotiations progress, and a possible housing market slump, which would affect both the output of volume house builders and the ability of social landlords to build for sale and cross-subsidise truly affordable rented homes.

It is not surprising that the top priority for the leaders we spoke to is securing greater flexibility to build sub-market rented homes, which according to the market conditions would help mitigate this risk by allowing them to maintain some housebuilding.

The message for government is clear: you face a stark choice between offering flexibility to maintain housing growth despite the economic climate, or sticking to your guns on homeownership at the risk of stalling housebuilding of all tenures. It is a risk that is difficult to ignore.

While Brandon Lewis has reaffirmed the government’s commitment to homeownership, at the start of the week Theresa May seemed to indicate some subtle differences from her predecessor. Meanwhile, the departure of Alex Morton, widely cited as the architect of recent housing policy, perhaps opens the door to greater discussion.

Now is the time for the sector to come together to form a compelling argument. It must side-step the obvious potential trap: being cast as a self-serving campaign to protect social rent come what may. It must be seen to provide a solution to a very real problem. There is a window of opportunity.