The mood is shifting on private rented sector regulation

The party says that: “Under the German system, tenancies are effectively open-ended, with a tenant only able to be evicted on tightly defined grounds – for example, if they don’t pay the rent or commit criminal behaviour in the property.”

And it says it will “consult widely” with landlord and tenant groups between now and the next election to work out “proper grounds for termination of a tenancy”.

The Conservatives have made a series of moves on renter issues and are still considering a shift to Labour’s previous policy – a consultation last year on overcoming barriers to longer tenancies offered default three-year terms as one option.

Attitudes are changing among social landlords, too. This month, Sanctuary became the third large housing association to pledge to offer its residents lifetime tenancies when their fixed-term tenancies expire; L&Q and Peabody had already done the same.

So what has changed?

First, the politics. Labour and then the Conservatives have realised that renters, frustrated by their lack of rights, represent key swing votes in many constituencies – and that vague promises to smooth their way to home ownership will not cut it.

Second, successful campaigning by new organisations such as Generation Rent has given private tenants a voice they previously lacked. This has had a significant media and political impact and pushed the existing housing lobby in a more radical direction.

Third, developments elsewhere. Scotland ended no-fault evictions in the private rented sector in 2017, while Ireland moved to offer ‘rent certainty’ to tenants in 2017 after introducing default four-year tenancies.

Issues remain with the new regimes, with some claiming that the specified grounds for possession in Scotland can sometimes mean less security for tenants and Ireland having to tighten up its legislation. But so far, the sky has not fallen in on the private rented sector in either country.

“Very little has actually changed yet for tenants on the ground”

Finally, Grenfell has changed attitudes to tenants. The pre-2016 rhetoric about “lifetime” and “sink estates” is no longer acceptable in the wake of the disaster.

The government recognised as much when it said it would not go ahead with mandatory fixed-term tenancies in the social housing green paper.

But while the rhetoric, the political promises and the attitudes have all changed, very little has actually changed yet for tenants on the ground.

True, the government has u-turned on mandatory fixed-term tenancies and is still making the right noises about increased security for private renters.

However, an increase in the minimum term of a private tenancy was only one of the options proposed to overcome “the barrier to longer tenancies” and the government has been sitting on responses to that consultation for six months and counting.

True, Labour is promising indefinite tenancies but the party has to win an election first. It also remains to be seen what “indefinite tenancies” means in practice – presumably it would mean abolishing Section 21 of the Housing Act 1988 and the current default assured shorthold tenancy.

That still leaves plenty of room for debate about the grounds for ending a tenancy – would landlords, for example, be able to regain possession when they want to sell up, live in the properties themselves or refurbish them? These could turn out to be significant loopholes.

And what would Labour do about the short-term letting that continues to make inroads into the rental market around the country thanks to sites like Airbnb – or about student accommodation?

It would be difficult to justify giving private renters more rights than social tenants, but would Labour abolish voluntary fixed-term tenancies and introductory tenancies?

“The government has u-turned on mandatory fixed-term tenancies and is still making the right noises about increased security for private renters”

Social housing lettings statistics show that 68% of new council and housing association tenancies were secure in 2017/18 but 18% were fixed term and another 12% were on licence agreements.

The proportion on fixed terms was unchanged on the previous year but around two-thirds of all tenancies were offered on a starter/introductory period.

So there is still a long way to go on security for tenants and lots of detailed work to be carried out before things really change.

However, the Labour announcement plus the tentative Tory moves on renter rights are indications of just how far the Overton Window has shifted on this issue – policies that were seen until very recently as being beyond the pale now seem not just acceptable but normal

Jules Birch, award-winning blogger