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The sector must be prepared to support people in a no-deal Brexit
Social landlords could have a wider role to play in mitigating the economic impact of Brexit, writes Stuart Ropke
Many of us have watched with varying degrees of shock and bemusement in recent weeks as parliament and the UK government have stumbled no closer to a conclusion on the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
As negotiations within parties and between governments have seemingly stalled, with no end in sight, the prospect of a no-deal Brexit has become all too real.
If you believe some commentators, this chaotic crash-out from the EU will deliver an economic shock and impact on daily life.
“It’s easy to forget that the housing sector won’t be immune from any fall-out”
As we continue to hear businesses echoing their concerns daily in the news – with lorry drivers worrying about their livelihoods and manufacturers concerned about their ability to export to Europe smoothly – it’s easy to forget that the housing sector won’t be immune from any fall-out.
Of course, Brexit will already be featuring on the risk maps of many organisations across the sector. The regulators in both Wales and England have made it clear that they expect housing organisations to take potential issues around funding, data, staffing, exposure to the housing market and supply chains seriously.
At Community Housing Cymru, we have produced an in-depth briefing for our members outlining the questions that need to be answered.
While boards and executive teams will be rightly focused on ensuring that business can continue uninterrupted in the event of no-deal, the housing sector could have a wider role to play in the mitigation of any economic impacts.
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As the fall-out from the financial crisis in 2008 hit the economy, the response from the government was to direct capital investment towards housing associations.
They rightly recognised that building new homes offered an incredibly quick transmission mechanism to keep economic activity going, protecting jobs and supporting recovery. It’s hard to see any government, regardless of political colour, spurning the opportunity to pull levers that would support the economy.
That’s why we’ve been keen to restate the case and illustrate how effective counter-cyclical investment in the housing sector is as an economic stimulus.
As a sector, we house some of the most vulnerable people across the nation and are often the best resource working in communities, especially as years of austerity have hit local government hard. Surely the most important issue we need to think about is the potential impact on people of a no-deal?
This is a unique negotiation – failure to reach agreement doesn’t mean retention of the status quo but a very different situation with a big impact.
There have been numerous warnings over supplies of food and medicine. Any delays on key trade routes are likely to impact on the importation of food and medicine from the EU and beyond. If tariffs are applied, we could see food prices increase both for individuals and for commercial customers.
Many housing associations work closely with local support agencies, including food banks. Do we know if those agencies are geared up and resourced to deal with any increase in demand from tenants and other clients?
“The work that housing associations do in communities to promote cohesion and resilience is more important than ever”
And of course, are we happy knowing that care homes and extra care facilities are having to take steps to ensure sufficient food supply in the event of no-deal?
In Wales, as in the UK as a whole, the result of the referendum has divided communities. In Wales, 52.5% of people voted to leave the EU, with a majority voting to leave in all local authority areas except Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Monmouthshire, Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan.
There have been reports of increased instances of hate crime since the referendum in 2016, and the work that housing associations do in communities to promote cohesion and resilience is more important than ever.
With just over a month until the UK is due to exit the EU, we still do not know if a majority will be found in the House of Commons for a deal.
We cannot be sure of what the impacts of a no-deal exit would be. But given the level of contingency planning happening within government and public services it would be remiss for the housing sector not to be prepared to step up and play a role supporting people and communities as needed.
Stuart Ropke, chief executive, Community Housing Cymru
