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Will Grenfell shift public opinion about housing?

Ben Marshall of polling firm Ipsos Mori looks at whether housing is now set to move up the agenda

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Will Grenfell shift public opinion about housing?

A few years ago I asked someone in a very senior position in the housing sector what they thought would increase the salience of the issue of housing in public consciousness and the political will to do something about it.

Her response was “probably a tragedy”.

This month, after Grenfell, we found 17% of Britons spontaneously mentioning housing as among the most important issues facing the country.


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Another Ipsos Mori poll, for the Chartered Institute of Housing, found three-quarters agreeing that we have a national housing crisis.

This sense of crisis has not changed in three years and 17% matches the monthly average throughout 2016 (housing has topped 20% only five times since we began tracking this in 1974, most recently in August 2016).

So, even a tragedy has not changed the fundamentals of public opinion, at least not yet. But, of course, this might be because Grenfell is so much more than a housing issue.

Housing has received more attention in recent years. The 2015 general election was something of a breakthrough, with housing issues becoming more front-of-mind, evidenced by our polling and increased prominence in party manifestos, leader debates, and general discourse.

“The imperative to build more has cut through with the public in recent years.”

It remains, though, an issue which does not determine votes in the public’s eyes and has less bite than other issues.

This is partly because it is largely thought of in terms of the ‘market’ rather than the ‘government’, in contrast to, say, the NHS. It seems that people and politicians file housing in the ‘too difficult/too complex’ pile.

All of this creates fatalism and distrust. That two-thirds think there is something government can do to solve our country’s housing problems partly reflects housing’s status as a ‘something must be done’ issue; a call for action.

But what action? The imperative to build more has cut through with the public in recent years.

However, while politicians have been busy trading manifesto pledges about the volume of new building, people are telling us they think solutions should be about more than numbers.

In London we have found worrying signs that people think the housing crisis is being addressed, but not in the right ways.

They question what is being built, where, and for whom.

They are concerned that ‘the people in charge’ are out of touch with reality and their lived experiences.

“The public are strong, in principle, supporters of social housing and the role it plays.”

Issues of quality and standards also play out in respect of existing stock.

Our research for Shelter last year found 43% of homes falling short of the Living Home Standard.

The public are strong, in principle, supporters of social housing and the role it plays.

They are also very clear that the right to a decent quality home is universal. And they have dim views of high rises.

In some ways the housing crisis is even worse than people think it is – for example, they are fairly accurate on house price levels but underestimate the affordability gap (in particular, the average deposit required), and think the provision of social housing is much more prevalent than it actually is.

This possibly reflects the narrative around housing for decades; it’s been much more about house prices than public policy.

Could Grenfell start to change things? Time will tell.

We might not see a shift in the fundamentals of public opinion for a while but, regardless, something different – and bolder – needs to be done.

This is surely the time housing becomes less about prices, property and profit, and more about people.

Ben Marshall, research director, Ipsos Mori

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