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The Welsh election has pushed Labour out of power for the first time. Stuart Ropke explores what that could mean for housing
How is the housing sector lining up to lobby the parties predicted to step into government after the 7 May elections? Eliza Parr speaks to Community Housing Cymru’s Stuart Ropke to find out
How is the housing sector lining up to lobby the parties predicted to step into government after the 7 May elections? Eliza Parr speaks to Community Housing Cymru’s Stuart Ropke to find out #UKhousingWales is on the verge of a huge political shake-up. In just six days’ time, voters will elect 96 members to the Senedd. If polls are to be believed, Labour is likely to suffer historic losses, with Plaid Cymru and Reform set to be neck and neck.
But Stuart Ropke, long-serving chief executive of Community Housing Cymru (CHC), the trade body for Welsh housing associations, sees the current moment as an opportunity.
“We can’t underestimate the sea change that a change in government will bring, because it hasn’t happened for us in the devolution era, and for all of us who engage with government, that’s a massive change,” he says.
Not for nothing does he use “change” three times in one sentence here – Labour has been the dominant force in Wales since the first assembly elections back in 1999, and therefore the main object of the sector’s lobbying.
The 7 May result will be “potentially exciting, potentially different, and will bring new challenges”, Mr Ropke adds. In fact, he says it is challenges like this that have kept him in the job for 12 years – and he has no plans to leave anytime soon.
Mr Ropke sat down with Inside Housing in March during CHC’s annual governance conference in Cardiff. The event brought together senior figures from across the social housing sector to discuss “leadership fit for a changing Wales”. We’re talking in the iconic Millennium Centre on Cardiff Bay, right next door to the Senedd building.
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The day’s sessions, and chatter among attendees, are unsurprisingly focused on the uncertainty of the upcoming election. One senior leader tells Inside Housing the election is “scary” because it is likely to be “really polarising”.
Whatever their political stripes, sector leaders were urged to play their part in countering misinformation ahead of 7 May, given the recent “politicisation of social housing”.
Panellists at the conference discussed how housing in particular has become a political issue in Wales, and is being linked to rhetoric around immigration. Indeed, Inside Housing’s recent survey of hundreds of housing sector staff across the UK found that more than two-thirds of respondents say they have encountered – in real life – factually inaccurate information along the lines of “all social housing is going to immigrants”.
But what might a change of government mean for the sector when it comes to issues such as development and regulation? And what issues will its trade body hope to tackle with a new government?
Fresh pair of eyes
Mr Ropke has been engaging with all the main political parties, and one of the main things he’s been trying to get across is the build-up of financial, regulatory and legislative pressures on housing associations across Wales.
He is clear from the get-go that all political parties are committed to housing. “I’m really positive about how much of a priority housing will remain, regardless of who is in government,” he says, a sentiment he repeats throughout the interview.
Glancing through the manifestos parties have published ahead of the Senedd election, we can see varying degrees of focus on social housing.
Plaid Cymru has set a goal to deliver at least 20,000 new social homes by 2030 and to set up a national development body, while Labour has pledged to deliver 40,000 social homes in the next 10 years.
Meanwhile, Reform’s manifesto was less specific on social housing, aside from a promise to “prioritise Welsh men and women”.
Despite his belief that all parties prioritise housing, Mr Ropke recognises the nuances in their policies. CHC has done a lot of work with Plaid Cymru in particular over the past couple of years, which, it seems, has been a breath of fresh air.
“I think the benefit of not being in power and having set policy positions that you’ve been wedded to means that you can take a fresh eye,” Mr Ropke says.
Plaid Cymru politicians can get into the weeds of social housing policy, he adds, and are “interested in the mechanics” of how the sector works. “That’s been quite a refreshing conversation from our point of view.”
This was evident in a discussion CHC had with Plaid about phasing in Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) A targets. When the current Labour government consulted on the Welsh Housing Quality Standard 2023, it had proposed a deadline of 2033 for EPC A.
This was met with strong opposition from the sector and was later dropped. Mr Ropke says it would have been “absolutely impossible”, adding that Plaid is able to “understand the trade-offs” around energy efficiency targets because, unlike Labour, its politicians have not been wedded to a certain policy.
When it comes to Reform politicians, Mr Ropke finds a diplomatic way of saying they are not quite so detail-oriented: “Because they’re new to this, there is a conversation with them about how the housing system works in Wales, how the housing association model works, which is different.”
Has the issue of allocations and immigration come up in CHC’s discussions with Reform? “It has come up, absolutely,” Mr Ropke responds.
Again, CHC seems to have played an educational role here.
“The conversation on allocations is being really clear about how allocations work, and I do think it sometimes is an area where people aren’t always clear about how the allocation system works and who’s entitled to a home and who’s not... I do think sometimes there is a level of misinformation around some of that stuff,” Mr Ropke says.
“I’m really positive about how much of a priority housing will remain, regardless of who is in government”
But he stresses that conversations with Reform have been respectful and polite, and that “all political parties are in it for the right reasons”. He also wants to see Reform candidates out on visits to housing association estates and new developments – something he says CHC’s members are up for.
This kind of engagement is part of a wider shift in how CHC lobbies politically. Over the past couple of years, the organisation has been anticipating a potential change in government, and has altered its structure slightly as a result. This has seen CHC bring additional public affairs and research resources in-house, Mr Ropke says.
The trade body set out its stall on the election early. At its annual conference last year, CHC launched its own ‘manifesto’ outlining how political parties should go about fixing Wales’ housing crisis. Given 10,600 people – and 2,300 children – are currently living in temporary accommodation, CHC hoped to spark a “national conversation” about the life-changing impact of a good home.
Among its demands to politicians contesting the election is a target to deliver 60,000 homes over 10 years and the launch of a national development body. CHC’s vision extends beyond the immediate next government – Mr Ropke tells Inside Housing the sector needs long-term commitments on funding in order to weather political cycles.
“We think there’s enough consensus cross-party to hopefully do that. But if we’re to make a real difference in Wales… it needs more than one term of government to turn that around,” he says.
Mr Ropke does not have a ballot box crystal ball, but he recognises that after so many years of the same party, Wales is likely entering a period of more volatility.
“It does seem to be a much more volatile political environment than anything I’ve experienced, certainly in the time I’ve been doing this job,” he says. This makes long-term plans for social housing more crucial than ever.
The government has just narrowly missed its target of building 20,000 homes for social rent over a five-year period, with 93% projected to be delivered by the end of the Senedd term.
But there has been a huge increase in the volume of new supply coming through – in 2024-25, over 3,600 additional affordable homes were completed across Wales, which is a 12% increase on the year before and the highest total since records began in 2007.
CHC members are driving this, with housing associations delivering three-quarters of all new affordable homes. Mr Ropke says that getting so close to the target is a “heck of an achievement”, given pressures from the pandemic, cost inflation, and issues around land supply and marine nitrates.
But if Wales cannot build 20,000 homes over five years, how will it expand ambitions to 60,000 over 10 years? Mr Ropke expects the “ramp-up” in housebuilding – helped by consistent resourcing – to continue in the coming years.
“I would focus less on the fact we haven’t hit the 20,000 target. In terms of the ramp-up we’ve seen, the number of homes being built year-on-year has increased, and certainty buys you a lot of potential to up the amount of supply there.”
He also suggests that the 60,000-home target CHC is pushing for may not comprise only social homes: “There are other tenures apart from social homes that are needed in Wales… the target might not just be social housing per se.”
Policy changes
Despite his optimism on development, Mr Ropke is realistic about the pressures housing associations face, from a variety of angles.
Just this year, the Senedd has passed two huge pieces of legislation that will affect the sector: the Homelessness and Social Housing Allocation (Wales) Bill, and the Building Safety (Wales) Bill. Implementation of these new regulations, Mr Ropke points out, will be in the hands of the new government.
Social landlords are also now subject to an updated Welsh Housing Quality Standard, with new requirements around dealing with damp and mould. CHC has previously warned that meeting these standards may hinder social housing supply, and has called for more pragmatism from the Welsh government.
Mr Ropke has sought to get this message around pragmatism across to political parties.
“One of the other things we’ve been able to talk about is that we’ve had a lot of cumulative pressure on the sector in Wales, whether it’s legislation, whether it’s demands from government around speed of retrofits, homelessness stuff, and [we just explain that] there are always trade-offs here… I think potentially a change of party holding the reins of power might mean we can have those conversations in a slightly different way.”
Another conversation the CHC chief executive wants to have with a new government is around rent convergence. Last year, the sector welcomed the Welsh government’s new 10-year rent settlement at Consumer Price Index +1%. But as it stands, there is no concrete proposal for converging social rents, as there is in England.
Since 2016, the government has set rent frameworks allowing social rents to increase above inflation, which has brought social rents in Wales much closer to market rents than in England. Stakeholders, however, have still pushed for rent convergence in order to promote greater consistency across the sector and generate extra income.
The Welsh government recently commissioned Savills to undertake research into a potential rent convergence policy.
Mr Ropke says this is a policy the government “has kicked into the long grass”, and is one of the big asks from the sector. “So there’s a bit of work to be done later on that – what we don’t know is what the position of parties coming in might be around that,” he says.
Whatever government forms after 7 May will have a lot on its plate – as will whoever is the new cabinet secretary for housing. Mr Ropke has made it clear that on social housing policy, CHC wants to be at the forefront of the conversation, no matter the political party.
And he is confident that the importance of safe and affordable housing will continue to be recognised.
“We’ve had a consensus all the time I’ve been here – probably before that – on housing policy generally in Wales. There might be small nuances depending on who’s in power.
“But I don’t see that changing and I think if there is to be a change, that’s not unhealthy, sometimes, in a democracy.”
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