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The threat of direct rule by the UK government in Northern Ireland poses “unprecedented” levels of risk to the country’s housing sector, associations have warned.
It was hoped a 13-month deadlock between the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein would end on Monday as UK prime minister Theresa May and Irish taoiseach Leo Varadkar attended talks to resolve issues.
However, no deal was struck, meaning that although an agreement to restore a government in Stormont is still possible, direct rule looks more likely than ever.
There are fears this could result in UK government ministers bringing the region in line with England’s housing policy, which is currently devolved.
That could mean cuts to social housebuilding grant, changes to the Supporting People budget and the removal of welfare reform mitigation measures agreed by the previous Northern Ireland Assembly.
“We wouldn’t know how the ministers are going to respond or work with us. There are a lot of hard policy decisions to be made in various areas,” said Gerry Kelly, chief executive of Apex.
“If we move to direct rule, the question is do they go for a quiet life and let those issues carry on, or are they going to come over and throw their weight around?”
Michael McDonnell, chief executive of Choice Housing, said: “We have certainly discussed [direct rule] as a board but as this stage we’re not sure what we could do. It’s going to be difficult to anticipate what sort of shift in policy we might see.
“There are too many unknowns. You just have to control what you can control.”
There are also concerns that a move to direct rule could further delay the reversal of the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) decision to reclassify housing associations as public sector bodies.
The ONS has set a March 2019 deadline to bring forward legislation to reverse the decision before debt is shifted to the public sector.
Legislation to keep the sector’s £1bn of debt off the public balance sheet still needs to be brought forward by a minister, including a bill to end the Northern Ireland House Sales Scheme.
“The lack of a Stormont decision will also affect things like speed of decision-making,” said John McLean, chief executive of Radius.
“If things do go to direct rule, Brexit might fill up the legislative agenda so that an extension [to the March 2019 ONS deadline for legislation to come forward] is needed.”
The current number of potential risks to the sector has reached “unprecedented” levels, he added.
“The Northern Ireland Federation of Housing Associations [NIFHA] wants to see the early restoration of the NI Assembly and Executive as there are a number of pressing issues which need to be addressed by government ministers,” said Ben Collins, chief executive of the NIFHA.
“If it does not prove possible to bring back devolution in the near term, we would hope that any direct rule ministers would make decisions while taking account of the particular circumstances of Northern Ireland.”