Free exchange

Alex Morton’s move from Policy Exchange to the No 10 Policy Unit is a powerful symbol of something – but what exactly?

For some it’s a signal of a ‘housing dream team’, with Morton joining Nick Boles in a push to take the Yes to Homes message to the heart of government. Boles is of course planning minister but he was also the first director of the organisation dubbed ‘David Cameron’s favourite think tank’.

And it’s not just them either. Boles was succeeded as director by Anthony Browne, now Boris Johnson’s adviser for economic development, and Browne was succeeded by Neil O’Brien, who is now a special adviser to George Osborne. Three other alumni became Conservative MPs in 2010.

For others it will seem more like housing’s worst nightmare. Morton has developed some controversial as well as influential ideas and now the Exchangers are now well placed in No 10, the Treasury, the DCLG and the main city with a housing problem.

Or is it a sign of housing’s growing importance as a political issue? As Paul Goodman said on Conservative Home it’s an indication that Downing Street is following George Osborne’s lead:

‘The chancellor has rightly identified housing as strategic electoral ground on which Labour wants to park its bandwagon – and vital in its own right, especially for younger people, who don’t have the same access to home ownership that earlier generations enjoyed.’

Or of policy shifts to come? Boles already has far more license way than you might expect in a supposedly junior minister to make the case for more homes and planning reform, even if it means upsetting traditional Tory supporters like the Daily Telegraph (which gets its own back on Morton this morning). So presumably we can expect more of that from Morton at Downing Street, where he will reportedly be responsible for writing the housing bits of the next Conservative manifesto.

So how influential have Alex Morton and Policy Exchange been on housing? Here’s a quick reminder of some of his proposals over the last three years:

• Ending expensive social tenancies? See last week’s Autumn Statement with Osborne calling on councils to sell off high-value properties as they become vacant?
• Making it easier to convert redundant offices into homes? See numerous cuts in red tape over the last two years.
• New garden cities led by the private sector? See endorsement of the idea by David Cameron.
• More official encouragement for self-build? This has proved to be much more than just a Grant Shapps enthusiasm, with resources and public land set aside for it.
• Building more homes? He’s already trumped Labour’s pledge of 200,000 homes a year by 2020 with a call for 1.5 million homes over the same period.

There’s been plenty more besides. In 2010, Making Housing Affordable set out a blueprint for nationalising the existing stock of social housing, selling the vast majority of it to tenants and leaving only the most vulnerable living in what’s left. Social housing essentially creates social exclusion and poverty, he argued.

Earlier this year he co-authored a report calling for the demolition of all high-rise social housing and replacing it with terraced homes. I argued at the time that you didn’t have to look very hard to find the hidden agenda there.

The influence of this agenda is undeniable: just look at last week’s Autumn Statement. However, there are limits: what were sweeping radical ideas when first proposed became more tentative proposals by the time they’d been through the Whitehall sausage machine. Garden cities seem to be going nowhere under the coalition thanks to opposition from Eric Pickles, self-build initiatives remain piecemeal and the high-value properties announcement does not go nearly as far as ending expensive social tenancies. His penultimate report for Policy Exchange was a polemic against property taxes but Osborne imposed two more in the Autumn Statement.

Morton has also been critical of government policies like affordable rent and Help to Buy. Policy Exchange thinking and government policy often coincide but they do not always agree: its liberal, free market views are at odds with those of more small ‘c’ conservatives whose instinct is to oppose new development and protect the privileges of those who already own a home. His appointment may be a symbol of housing’s significance on the political agenda ahead of the next election and of the Tory leadership’s determination to neutralise it as an issue for Labour.

So does that mean it’s a victory for Yes to Homes? Morton’s arguments for new supply certainly seem to reinforce the message within Downing Street, but it would be a mistake to assume too much of a consensus between his views and those expressed by the National Housing Federation in its Home Truths report yesterday. The real housing debate to come could now be more about means than ends.