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Further links found between Labour swing and rising house prices
Links found between high house prices and swing to Labour by Inside Housing have been confirmed after further analysis by Network Homes.
Controlling for various factors that could have been separately driving the correlation – such as age, Brexit, or average wages – house prices still had a significant relationship to a swing to Labour.
Change in house prices actually had a stronger correlation with swing to Labour than current prices – the more an area had seen its house prices rise since the last election, the more that area swung towards Labour.
Network Homes conducted its analysis by combining data gathered and analysed by Inside Housing in the immediate aftermath of the election, which found a correlation between median house prices and swing to Labour.
All but two constituencies in which house prices have grown by 400% or more over the past 20 years saw a positive swing to Labour. Notably, this even held true in areas with large numbers of people who voted to leave the European Union.
For example, in Cambridge only 26.23% of people voted leave, house prices have grown 485% in 20 years, and the seat swung 10.7% towards Labour.
In Kemptown, Brighton, 44% of people voted leave, house prices have risen 443% in the past 20 years, and the seat swung 10.8% towards Labour.
In the face of increasing house prices, voting to leave the European Union did not change the swing to Labour at all.
Michael Marshall, research and intelligence analyst at Network Homes, said: “Even though our analysis modelled house prices and their growth, this does not mean the impact of housing is only felt through homeownership. Soaring house prices create a ripple effect which is felt across the income scale.
“The more people who are locked out of the opportunities that come with a good home, the more they feel their life is heading in the wrong direction and that they’re unrepresented.
“Even if housing polls as a lower priority issue, it is key to giving people a stake in society and affects how they vote. Our research shows it goes some way towards explaining the election result.”
