A 'welfare reform winter' is coming

It’s summer.  But while we all enjoy the warmer weather a cold wind is ready to blow – the implementation of the next stage of welfare reform.  

A bad winter beckons for those directly affected by the cuts; a bad winter for those trying to house them and an icy breeze over landlord and local authority relationships when nominations are rejected because rehousing residents sets them up for failure.

The reduced benefit cap, coming in October, caps the total amount of benefits a household can claim. If means they would be claiming over £385 a week (£442 in London), their housing benefit will be reduced until their total claim is at the capped level. This will mean families with three or more children may be unable to pay their rent.

But spring will bring no respite for other benefit claimants. In April 2017 18-21 year olds will lose automatic entitlement to Housing Benefit and may be unable to make new claims.

And a year later, some single young people who became tenants after April 2016 will be unable to afford independent social housing, as their Housing Benefit will only cover the cost of a room in a shared house – an option which is wholly unsuitable for many of the vulnerable tenants we house at the moment

Critics will argue that the sector ‘cried wolf’ over the last round of cuts but people appeared to cope. They will say that the number of unemployed families with children is at a record low.  What they won’t say is that many of us invested in helping those affected by bedroom tax and other cuts to move or find work and that research, like the G15’s Real London Lives, has shown that the cuts have pushed others to the edge – only paying their way through borrowing, help from family and friends and patient landlords. 

The mistake people make is that they believe the relationship between welfare cuts and evictions/debt is linear.  It isn’t. It is more like a cliff where people try their best to survive but at some point, usually sparked by a personal crisis, they give up. I don’t know how these cuts will work in practice but they definitely push many people closer to the edge of their own cliff.

The slicing and dicing of cuts over a period of time works for government and policy makers so they can squeeze people until they can see things are going wrong or public sentiment turns against them.  It is a slow painful journey for those directly affected.

At Family Mosaic we are preparing for October.  We are thinking through how we can continue to help those referred to us by local authorities – what risks can we take?   How we can mitigate the risks?  And are there people we will no longer be able to house?

These are problems we all face and it is going to be tough.  We need to start talking about it now.

At Family Mosaic our rents on new homes are lower than other housing associations’. 

Does this mean we can take more of the burden? Does this mean others charging nearer 80% of market rent have a legitimate reason to ask for referrals of people in work, or should they be taking more risks because they have more income? 

And if none of us can take the risk who will house them?

What does it mean for those who are accepted as statutory homeless but are a long way from being able to work and won’t be able to pay rent and eat? 

What about those in hospital awaiting a home in the community? We all need to pull together quickly and honestly, respecting a shared desire to help those in need, but bearing in mind the increasing risks involved and the limits on risks organisations can take.

We need to help each other prepare for the winter ahead.

Brendan Sarsfield is the chief executive of Family Mosaic.