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We must not forget about ‘levelling up’ as we plan the North’s role in the recovery
It is time to plan the role housing will have in the North’s recovery and make sure ‘levelling up’ does not drop off the national agenda, writes Tracy Harrison
The emergency response to coronavirus has brought out the very best in the North over recent weeks, as councils, housing associations and ALMOs have worked hand in hand to ensure that our communities are protected and supported.
But now, as we appear to be at a point where the curve has been flattened, more and more attention is starting to be given to thinking about ‘recovery’ and what may come next.
That recovery must include continuing to support people and communities, but it is also clear that it will have to respond to an emergent economic crisis where the ramifications on housing organisations could be huge.
It is now certain that we will be entering a deep recession in the months ahead, which will have significant economic consequences on the people we serve as well as the future of public finances.
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On 14 April, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) released its ‘reference case’ of what the effect may be from the current lockdown. It estimated a drop in GDP of 35% for the second quarter of 2020 and that GDP for the year would drop 13%.
This will have major human consequences. The OBR estimated that unemployment would increase by two million people over the summer months and that the unemployment rate would reach 10%. That is higher than at any point during or immediately after the 2008/09 financial crisis.
These effects will come quickly. As housing organisations we need to be prepared for what it might suddenly mean for our services. We may already face a spike in demand, however that may well grow again – but in a very different way in the months ahead.
“These effects will come quickly. As housing organisations we need to be prepared for what it might suddenly mean for our services”
Then there is the need to ‘re-start’ our economy in order to mitigate the negative effects, so that an economic recovery can begin and people have jobs to go to.
We know housing organisations play a huge economic role: our 140+ members across the North have an economic impact of over £10bn and support over 100,000 jobs. But what role should housing play in these very different circumstances?
How will ‘levelling-up’ be achieved in what is a very different context to when it was originally announced?
How must our services change given a very different socio-economic context might emerge?
These are just some of the many questions housing organisations in the North will need to grapple with as a sector in the weeks ahead.
At the Northern Housing Consortium, we have already started giving some thought to these kinds of issues. Over the coming weeks we will provide our members with insight into what may happen and begin to develop our response.
First we will try to understand the types of recession we may face – whether a ‘V’-shaped bounce, a ‘U’-shaped dip or a much more dramatic ‘L’ – as we need to know what is coming to be able to react.
“Housing could play a significant role as part of any economic stimulus, through the building of new homes or the retrofitting of our older stock”
Second, we will try to assess the implications of an economic recession on the sector and our members, but also on housing in the North.
In recent years we have strengthened our links with government and parliament and it is likely, as the implications of a recession play out, that councils, housing associations and ALMOs in the North will need that strong collective voice more than ever.
Third, we will begin to think what the policy response may be that both mitigates the negative impacts of a recession as well as stimulate a recovery.
Housing could play a significant role as part of any economic stimulus, through the building of new homes or the retrofitting of our older stock.
As a result, planning for a recovery that delivers some of our longer-term policy goals, such as renewing our existing homes through decarbonisation, should be seen as an opportunity for the sector – but one we will need to be ready to grasp.
Just as housing organisations in North have risen to the immediate challenge, we will adapt to whatever comes next.
Tracy Harrison, chief executive, Northern Housing Consortium
