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Latest SHR report shows turnover forecast in Scotland down on previous year
The latest five-year report from the Scottish Housing Regulator shows turnover in the sector increasing to 3.9%, though this is down on last year’s projection of 4.8%.
The latest five-year report from the Scottish Housing Regulator shows turnover in the sector increasing to 3.9%, though this is down on last year’s projection of 4.8% #UKhousingThe regulator’s report is a summary of registered social landlords’ (RSLs) finances for the next five years through to 2030.
Total turnover over this period is projected to increase by £355m over the period, although this is reduced by £224m in the release of grants from deferred income, which is linked to in a downward forecast development assumptions.
Despite this forecast, the SHR is projecting 17,600 new homes, to be funded primarily by £2.21bn of social housing grant (55%) and £1.56bn of private finance.
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The main finding is that the sector is “generally stable, but RSLs continue to face ongoing financial pressures”.
Operating costs are expected to rise by 3.1% to £436m, matching the previous year’s rate.
Shaun Keenan, assistant director of financial regulation at the SHR, said: “RSLs continue to operate in a challenging economic climate. While aggregate finances are stable, headroom remains tight with further pressure ahead.
“Most RSLs are managing these challenges through prudent management and efficiencies, but their ability to absorb extra costs – such as those for fire safety works and decarbonisation – remains limited.”
Capital expenditure on existing homes in this period is expected to top £2bn, an average of nearly £6,300 per property.
However, the SHR believes that decarbonisation costs alone could range from £4.8bn to £9.6bn, but RSL projections include just £166.8m. The Scottish Federation of Housing Associations warned about this gap back in October.
Mr Keenan added: “Strong governance is essential to maintaining financial resilience and delivering better tenant outcomes.
“Governing bodies also need accurate, comprehensive data to guide decisions and prioritise spending.”
Elsewhere in the report, it forecast net housing assets to grow slightly to £20.65bn, and cash reserves to “remain healthy”, but will drop over the period from £662.3m to £497.5m.
Rent arrears are also down and steadily reducing, from 3% in 2025-26 to 2.8% by 2027-28.
This latest SHR report comes after its annual analysis of loan portfolio returns, which found that total debt facilities available to landlords exceeded £7bn for the first time, along with a “marked rise in borrowing activity”.
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