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Leaked OBR report estimates net additions to top 300,000 annually by 2029-30
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, leaked ahead of today’s Budget, is expecting net additions to housing stock to rise above 300,000 per year by 2029-30 due to the impact of planning reforms.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s report, leaked ahead of today’s Budget, is expecting net additions to housing stock to rise above 300,000 per year by 2029-30 #UKhousingIn its economic and fiscal outlook, the non-departmental public body also estimated that the UK will see nearly 1.5 million homes added to its housing stock between 2024-25 and 2029-30.
However, it warned that housing additions would drop to a new low of 215,000 in the next financial year from an average 260,000 in the early 2020s, due to “recent subdued housing starts”.
The early release of the OBR’s review of the government’s spending plans was described by chancellor Rachel Reeves as a “breach” of protocol in her delayed address to parliament today.
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The OBR said: “We then expect net additions to rise sharply to 305,000 in 2029-30, reflecting the impact of planning reforms.”
It added: “Compared to March, net additions are 10,000 lower in 2024-25 but around 25,000 higher in 2025-26, based on estimates drawn from new domestic Energy Performance Certificates up to early October.
“We expect slightly lower net additions toward the end of the forecast due to slightly higher forecast mortgage rates from 2028 onwards.
“This leaves cumulative net additions between 2024-25 and 2029-30 at 1.49 million, around 10,000 lower than in March.”
The OBR has also forecast a boost in residential investment, which includes both new housing supply and housing improvements, in the next couple of years when planning reforms take effect, though this rise is likely to be temporary.
It wrote: “We expect residential investment growth to accelerate from 1% in 2025 to around 7% in 2027 and 2028, as monetary policy loosens and planning reforms take effect. Growth [will moderate] to 2% by 2030 as these effects fade.”
The document was leaked ahead of the Budget as the deputy chair of the Public Accounts Committee said the government will need to find “some extra money” in order for social housebuilding to meet its target of 1.5 million new homes.
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