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More than 350,000 social rented homes will have been lost by 2020 as a result of government policies, according to the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH).
The CIH projects a net fall of 197,889 housing association social rented homes between 2012 and 2020, plus a fall of 152,866 social rent homes owned by councils.
The institute has used actual figures from 2012 to 2015 on housing association social rent and affordable rent stock levels. It has then made assumptions for future conversions of social rent to affordable rent and Right to Buy sales. It is assuming 20,000 conversions per year until 2018 and 10,000 in 2019, and 20,000 Right to Buy sales a year, rising to 30,000 for one year in 2018.
Its figures for council social rented stock assume 12,000 Right to Buy sales a year, 6,000 ‘high-value’ sales and 3,000 annual social rent demolitions. It assumes 1,000 new council homes for social rent are built a year from 2015 to 2019, and 500 a year from 2019 to 2021.
The exercise is a work in progress and the CIH intends to update the figures as more detail emerges on policies including the funding of the Right to Buy extension.
The detail of the research was released to Inside Housing on the same day as the publication of the annual CIH UK Housing Review 2016. The review uses a wide range of previously published data to reflect on the wider operating environment and policy context for the sector.