Building 1.5 million new homes is a stretching target, but Labour will be judged on delivery

To achieve the 1.5 million target, the rate of new home starts in this parliament will have to increase by 96% compared with the previous parliament. This expansion will be incredibly challenging – and even then, many new starts would be unlikely to be completed by the next election.

Looking at homes built, the last time England completed more than 300,000 new homes in a single year was over half a century ago, in 1969-70. Across the past 10 years, the average number of new homes completed was just 158,000.

A major reason for the collapse in housebuilding overall is the decline in the number of new homes completed by councils and housing associations. In the 1970s, they built over 120,000 homes a year on average. Over the past 10 years, they built just 31,000. This substantial fall accounts for 83% of the total decline in housebuilding.

“A major reason for the collapse in housebuilding overall is the decline in the number of new homes completed by councils and housing associations”

Our analysis also found that England missed out on over 300,000 homes for social rent over the course of the Affordable Homes Programme. This is more homes than there are in Manchester, more than in any London borough, and more than double the number of homes in Hull.

If the government wants to meet its 1.5 million new homes target and tackle the housing crisis, it needs councils and housing associations to build social homes at scale again.

The government’s difficult inheritance on housing is having a direct impact on its ability to achieve its target.

The number of new homes in the first three quarters after the election has been low, at just 86,000 units. This is an inevitable consequence of the reduced number of planning approvals in the year before the election. Approval was given to just 236,000 housing units, the lowest level in over a decade.

As a result, the number of homes that need to be delivered over the remaining years of this parliament will be higher. We estimate over 435,000 homes may need to be started in the final year of the parliament to come close to the 1.5 million target, assuming a gradual increase in housebuilding.

That would be a new official record for homes started in England in a single year. Indeed, if this was achieved, starts in 2028-29 would be over a third higher than in 1972-73, when the record was set.

“We estimate over 435,000 homes may need to be started in the final year of the parliament to come close to the 1.5 million target”

There is no doubt that the government has put in place many of the policies necessary to accelerate housebuilding in England. However, the scale of the challenge requires further reform to build a new generation of social and council housing, tackle the barriers large and small house builders face, and ensure there is a trained workforce to deliver these new homes.

That is why the Fabian Society has established the new Fabian Housing Centre, which will be dedicated to shaping the implementation of the forthcoming housing strategy and housing debates across the UK. We are developing progressive, practical and ambitious ideas to build 1.5 million new homes in England, tackle the housing crisis and create great places to live. To do so, the centre is working in collaboration with ministers, policymakers, housing organisations and those affected by the housing crisis.

The government has four years left to make significant progress in tackling the housing crisis. The stretching target of 1.5 million new homes is a critical part of this, and the government has started to deliver.

However, more needs to be done to demonstrate change to the public by the time of the next election. The Fabian Housing Centre will offer ideas on how to do this.

Ben Cooper, head, Fabian Housing Centre