Davos was a reality check for emerging green technologies

Discussions about “new energy technologies” often move quickly from technical possibility to implied inevitability. But history suggests a more cautious approach is warranted. Many innovations that look promising on paper struggle to scale, while others quietly deliver significant impact without much fanfare.

The appeal of breakthrough technologies is easy to understand. They promise deep decarbonisation without difficult political or economic trade-offs. High-profile contributions to the debate, including Bill Gates’ How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, have helped to popularise this narrative. But an excessive focus on future solutions risks distracting from a more immediate challenge: deploying the technologies that already work, fast enough to cut emissions this decade.

A useful way to cut through the hype is to assess emerging energy technologies through the lens of technology readiness and system value: what is already deployable, what may scale in the next few years, and what remains largely speculative. This perspective also highlights where policy and regulation matter at least as much as engineering.

High readiness: flexibility, not fuels

Some of the most impactful energy innovations currently being deployed do not involve new fuels or generation technologies at all. Instead, they focus on flexibility – making better use of existing assets, often enabled by digital optimisation. This was one of the quieter but more consistent themes in Davos discussions: grid operators and system planners talking less about shiny hardware and more about demand response and operational resilience.

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) is a case in point. Several electric vehicle (EV) models already support bidirectional charging, and pilot projects are under way in multiple countries. In principle, EVs can provide valuable grid services such as peak shaving and frequency response, particularly as variable renewable generation increases.

That said, technical feasibility does not automatically translate into widespread adoption. Regulatory barriers, consumer acceptance, battery warranty concerns and market design will ultimately determine whether V2G scales beyond niche applications. Still, among emerging technologies, V2G is relatively mature and could see meaningful uptake in the near term, but only if incentives are aligned.

Closely related is the growing role of digitalisation and system optimisation. Better forecasting, smarter controls and improved market signals, often enabled by AI, frequently deliver faster and cheaper emissions reductions than new infrastructure alone. These solutions rarely make headlines, but as many practitioners in Davos emphasised, they are essential to operating a high-renewables system reliably. Data centres offer significant flexibility potential and it is already possible today to operate a portfolio of data centres in a flexible way, routing queries to locations with less congestion and more renewable power in real time.

Medium to high readiness: storing energy as heat

Energy storage remains one of the more persistent challenges of the transition, particularly for industry. While lithium-ion batteries dominate electricity storage for short durations (typically up to four hours, and sometimes up to eight), they are not well suited for longer-duration storage. Lithium-ion batteries also struggle to provide high-temperature process heat, which accounts for a significant share of industrial energy demand.

This is where electro-thermal energy storage becomes relevant. These technologies convert electricity into heat and store it in solid materials for later use. They are already being deployed commercially, particularly in industrial settings. Compared to batteries, such systems can be simpler, cheaper and longer-lasting when the end use is heat rather than electricity.

The policy relevance here is often underestimated. Industrial heat is less visible than power or transport, but no less critical. Electro-thermal storage offers a relatively straightforward pathway, provided electricity pricing, grid access and carbon costs are aligned. This is not a distant prospect; it is a technology that could scale quickly under the right conditions.

Medium readiness: solar beyond today’s panels

Solar photovoltaics are a very mature technology, but that does not mean innovation has stopped. Several developments could materially change how and where solar is deployed, although expectations should remain realistic.

Perovskite solar cells, particularly when combined with silicon in tandem designs, have demonstrated impressive efficiency gains in laboratory settings. Unlike conventional solar panels made from silicon, perovskite solar cells use a synthetic crystal material that is extremely good at absorbing light, offering the prospect of higher efficiency at lower cost. The challenge, as ever, lies in durability, scalability and manufacturing yield.

While pilot production lines are emerging, it remains to be seen whether these technologies can compete commercially with ever-cheaper conventional silicon PV, which continues to improve in both efficiency and cost.

Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) face similar trade-offs. Integrating solar directly into building materials offers clear aesthetic and spatial advantages, especially in dense urban areas. However, BIPV has historically struggled with higher costs and lower performance. It may find viable niches, but it is unlikely to replace standard rooftop PV at scale in the near term.

Medium to low readiness: hydrogen, used selectively

Hydrogen continues to attract significant attention – and investment – but its role is increasingly being reassessed.

Rather than a universal solution, hydrogen is now more credibly framed as an option for specific hard-to-electrify applications, such as certain industrial processes, shipping and long-duration energy storage. Even here, green hydrogen remains energy-intensive and expensive, and infrastructure requirements are substantial.

Some early projects may become operational in the next few years, but large-scale impact will depend heavily on policy support and clear prioritisation. Without this, hydrogen risks repeating earlier cycles of enthusiasm followed by disappointment.

For long-duration storage, hydrogen could in principle play a significant role, for example during ‘kalte dunkelflaute’ periods, when it is cold and dark, and wind generation is low. However, large-scale deployment has yet to materialise, and market signals for long-duration or seasonal storage remain largely absent.

Lower readiness for deployment: advanced nuclear

Small modular reactors are often presented as relatively advanced technologies and are commonly placed in the mid range of the technology readiness level scale (around TRL 5-7). However, technical maturity should not be confused with system readiness. Significant challenges remain around licensing, financing, construction risk and public acceptance.

Despite continued interest in Davos discussions, often framed around energy security and firm capacity, these barriers make it unlikely that advanced nuclear technologies will contribute meaningfully to emissions reductions in the near term. Their potential relevance, if any, lies further into the future, well beyond the timeframes that matter most for near-term decarbonisation.

Fusion energy represents perhaps the most speculative end of the energy innovation spectrum. Despite notable scientific milestones, it remains far from commercial viability. A long-standing adage in the energy sector is that fusion is always “30 years away”. While ongoing research is valuable, fusion is not a substitute for deploying mature low-carbon technologies at scale today.

What this means for the energy transition

The energy transition will not be driven by a single breakthrough technology. Near and mid-term progress will come from deploying what already works, scaling what is nearly ready, and being honest about the limitations of more speculative options.

A focus on technology readiness, system integration and policy design helps avoid costly distractions and keeps attention on where emissions reductions can actually be delivered at scale.

In energy, as in climate policy more broadly, realism remains a virtue. This does not mean abandoning new energy technologies, but enthusiasm for what might come next should not become an excuse to ease off the accelerator for mature technologies that we already know must be scaled rapidly.